Monday, July 25, 2022
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Recession – The Irrelevant Investor


The unhealthy information is piling up. The recession that persons are searching for might already be right here.

We heard about stock buildup at Goal and Walmart final week and the shares responded with their worst day since…1987.  These weren’t remoted incidents. This week we heard the identical from Kohl’s and Abercrombie, whose inventory is cratering 30% on the information.

In different information, Snap simply warned of an imminent slowdown.

From The WSJ :

“In a shock announcement, Snap Inc., the mum or dad firm of Snapchat, stated in a submitting Monday afternoon that income and adjusted pretax earnings for the second quarter will are available under the vary the corporate projected barely a month in the past.”

The inventory is crashing 41% on the day, and is 85% under its highs method again in September. Massive tech goes by it proper now. The Nasdaq-100 is in its largest drawdown of the final decade, and it’s beginning to bleed into the true world. Layoffs are choosing up steam.


Within the bodily world, new house gross sales got here in 27% decrease than anticipated, and the earlier three months have been revised down.

It’s good to see the housing market cool off. With mortgage funds up 43% year-over-year, clearly we have been on an unsustainable path.


And to prime it off, the inventory market retains taking place. If the S&P 500 falls this week, it could be simply the third time since 1950 that it fell for eight consecutive weeks.

The excellent news concerning the unhealthy information is that the market has spent the final couple of months discounting it. We don’t know when this ends, however we all know the way it ends. The information will proceed to worsen however the market will rip anyway. Individuals will likely be confused, and we’ll battle to make sense of it. However we’re not there but. Proper now, we’re nonetheless in it.

Josh and I are going to cowl this and far more on tonight’s What Are Your Ideas?




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